23/24 - The Context #2
Observations from GW 1 - 8.
Hello - welcome to The Context #2 of the 23/24 season.
This series aims to add some context to the changes in Premier League team strength by getting input from fans on what is happening under the hood with their teams.
In this issue, we cover four teams:
Newcastle by JC @FPL_Spaceman
Everton by Olly @olly__fpl
Arsenal by @FplHedgehog
Chelsea by Dan @FplStatsdan
A big thank you to the above superstars. If you like what you read today then please reach out to them and let them know. They were all very considerate in giving their time and effort to contribute to this.
Thank you to Soccerment for providing some of the data.
Let's begin with the latest Model Snapshot:
Newcastle
Attack Strength: 1.78 (+0.05 improvement since GW1)
Defence Strength: 1.07 (+0.02 improvement since GW1)
Overall Strength: 0.71 (+0.07 improvement since GW1)
Model notes:
The second biggest improvement in Overall Strength.
I think their improvement is particularly impressive as I probably started the season higher on Newcastle than markets and other models.
Stat I enjoyed: Newcastle are best in the league for xG conceded from set pieces p90, conceding just 0.16 compared to the league average of 0.38.
The Context by JC @FPL_Spaceman:
Results took a little while to turn around under Howe after his appointment in November 2021, with only one win from his first ten games in charge (including drawing at home to Norwich and losing to 3rd tier Cambridge Utd in the FA Cup). They finished the 21/22 season relatively well, particularly in defence, keeping seven clean sheets in the second half of the season (no doubt helped by January signings Trippier, Burn, Targett, and Bruno Guimaraes). In attack, they were generally performing at around lower mid-table level. Improvement in output at both ends under the new manager and trending upward, but the main change had been stylistic. Howe brought intensity and energy to the way Newcastle were playing, preferring to counter-press high up the field rather than sit off in a defensive block (a staple of the previous Bruce-ball tactics).
They began the 22/23 season with some leaky performances in the opening games. However, once the now-familiar back 5 of Trippier, Schar, and Burn - along with summer signings Pope and Botman - was settled upon, their defensive underlying numbers continued from the prior season. Bruno Guimaraes had now settled into the squad, and certain players made great strides in their personal development under Howe (Almiron, Longstaff, and Joelinton’s reinvention as a box-to-box midfielder, to name a few). The high-pressing system was functioning well, creating more chances for Wilson to poach, Almiron to cut inside, Isak and St Maximin to take players on, and Joelinton, Willock, and Longstaff to make box-crashing runs. Their defensive numbers have been lauded (and with good reason), but their offensive output was also among the top 4 in the league last season.
What is notable about Newcastle is the spread of attacking contributions across the team compared to other strong sides (perhaps except Kane and Son dominating the offensive output at Tottenham). Outside of Isak and Wilson (neither of whom played more than 2000 mins), Joe Willock was the only other Newcastle player in the top 50 for NPxGI/90 last season, with Almiron, Murphy, Trippier, Joelinton, Longstaff, Bruno Guimaraes and Schar all in the 50th-100th range. For comparison, 6 Man City, 5 Liverpool, 4 Arsenal, 5 Brighton and 4 Man Utd players made the top 50 last season. Eight goals from eight different goalscorers in Newcastle’s 8-0 win at Bramall Lane in October is quite the example to symbolise this point.
The stability provided by the availability of the same back 5 week-in-week-out should not be understated in its contribution to Newcastle’s defensive solidity last season. There is some uncertainty around backup players who either have been out with injuries (Krafth, Manquillo), have not played significant minutes (Targett, Lascelles, Dummett), or are new additions to the squad (Livramento, Hall), as well as in what way Howe will look to rotate his squad with European football this season. Stellar performances from Livramento and Dummett vs Man City in the League Cup, and Lascelles against PSG in the UCL, show that these players can step up into the lineup when called upon - even if, ideally, that is not too frequently.
The high-energy counter-pressing style that saw success last season looks to be continuing. The proportion of times Newcastle immediately attempted to regain the ball after losing possession in attacking areas (also known as 'gegenpressing intensity', or GPI) rose from 0.07 to 0.49 between the first and second half of last season and has remained at 0.51 on average so far in 23/24 [per soccerment]. With nearly two seasons of strong underlying data under Howe, I think we can continue to expect more of the same from Newcastle despite the higher expectations and demands on the team. There is still room for improvement, and they will not beat a European giant like PSG every week (Brighton showed how they can be pulled apart with smart press-resistant passing moves to break the lines). Still, they have now shown the consistency that we should consider them to be one of the top teams in the Premier League.
Everton
Attack Strength: 1.25 (+0.11 improvement since GW1)
Defence Strength: 1.62 (-0.01 decrease since GW1)
Overall Strength: -0.37 (+0.10 improvement since GW1)
Model notes:
A mammoth +0.11 improvement in attack makes Everton the biggest improver in Attack Strength by a large margin.
This translates into them being the biggest improver in Overall Strength too as they have mostly maintained their defence strength.
Stat I enjoyed: average field tilt % is up to 53%, an improvement from the 43% average last season.
The Context by Olly @olly__fpl:
Dyche’s Everton - a team built heavily on being effective in transition & creating chances for the most part through high-press football & set pieces. When Dyche arrived in January, the club was a mess (Anthony Gordon was sold for £45m with none of the money reinvested, Frank Lampard was unable to get a tune out of the team tactically & had isolated key players from the dressing room such as Abdoulaye Doucouré, star striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin (DCL) was in a constant cycle of being rushed back from injury and then being out for weeks again and a consecutive relegation battle was looming). After a down-to-the-wire campaign where we managed to survive, there was a clear need for change over the summer; Ashley Young, Beto & Youssef Chermiti were signed permanently, alongside Arnaut Danjuma & Jack Harrison as loan signings. These signings show clear intent from the recruitment team to fit the needs of Dyche’s system, pacey wingers with goal threat & good delivery and Beto arrives as a rangy #9 who is quick, effective in the air and will be good competition for DCL - a profile completely different from previous backup Neal Maupay, who’s finishing ability seems to have been cast on to the rest of the team so far this season…
As discussed in the last ‘The Context’ post, Everton managed to get themselves in a huge finishing deficit through the first 4 games (with just 2 goals from ~8 npxG). The underlying numbers have continued to be strong going forward though as we have now played a further 4 games, creating ~9 npxG in the process, resulting in 7 goals. Fixtures are a big factor here, Everton has had one of if not the kindest fixture schedules through the first 8 games but even despite this, for Everton to put up ~1.9 npxG p90 as well as ~0.13 npxG/shot (from 133 shots, the second largest total in the league) shows that we are continuing to create plenty of high quality chances and are performing above & beyond what was expected from us preseason offensively - displaying a +0.11 increase in the attack strength in the model which is the largest of any team in the league. The xG continues to pop from set pieces as well, 0.82 p90 puts them top of the league in that metric (Luton big outlier though 2.05 xG just from that game) - if Everton keeps this up as well as build on the open-play xG they will continue to cause teams problems regardless of the opponent.
Dyche’s 4411 system was seen at its best in the most recent premier league game at home to Bournemouth. Harrison & McNeil for the first time this season both started together providing much-needed width on each side, letting the overlapping fullbacks come into play and allowing us to have effective delivery into DCL, Doucouré, Onana etc. from each flank. Bournemouth having more of the ball (51.8%) and looking to play Iraola’s play out from the back possession style suited us as we were able to press effectively and create chances through winning the ball back high up the pitch (as seen in both our first & third goals). Whereas against Luton we had 68% possession, despite looking at the numbers and seeing that we put up 3.7 xG (a lot of this came solely from the pattern of play that resulted in DCL’s goal) we were toothless in the second half, unable to break Luton down & looking out of ideas in possession - resorting to lumping the ball up to a striker pair of DCL & Beto in hope of a lucky break. This is something in particular that Dyche needs to work on tactically for future games where we are expected to dominate the ball.
I do believe that the team strength can continue to trend positively - due to injuries a big chunk of key players (DCL, McNeil, Harrison + more) have only really been introduced to the team in the last few games. I would expect some defensive strength improvements as Young/Patterson, Tarkowski, Branthwaite & Mykolenko establish themselves as a back 4. Another key thing will be keeping DCL in the team, in a short sample size he looks back to his best & his numbers are very good if he can match the xG output he was putting up under Ancelotti (~0.55 npxG p90) then I expect a huge season from the big #9 & the strong attacking performances to continue around him. As well as this, I would expect the tougher fixtures on the horizon to suit the way Dyche wants to play, we will see much less of the ball so we can absorb pressure, set up on the counter & punish them in the transitions (Doucouré, DCL, Beto, Harrison etc. all brilliant at this).
Arsenal
Attack Strength: 1.93 (-0.05 decrease since GW1)
Defence Strength: 1.10 (+0.04 improvement since GW1)
Overall Strength: 0.83 (-0.01 decrease since GW1)
Model Notes:
Biggest improvers in Defence Strength.
-0.05 Attack Strength puts them joint with Man City and Man United in attach reduction.
Stat I enjoyed: Arsenal’s xG conceded from counters p90 is 0.13 and this puts them 17th in the league on that metric, with the league average at 0.11.
The Context by @FplHedgehog:
For me, the main takeaway from the first 8 gameweeks is a shift towards control in games. The first lineup of the season against Nottingham Forest included Partey as an inverted RB, with Timber at LB. Whether that would have continued absent of the injuries we picked up remains to be seen, but for me, that looked like a pretty obvious way to reduce the transitional threat in games where we expected to have a lot of the ball.
In the bigger games, we seem very happy to allow the opponent the ball in non-threatening areas (with the GK and the back 4) – whilst backing ourselves to trigger the press at the right time causing a turnover in dangerous areas. I was surprised, for example, to see that we had more possession against United.
What seems to be a slight issue is that the attack isn’t really clicking just yet, with Arsenal being bottom half (!) for npxG in the league so far, although I think injuries across the forward line (Jesus, Martinelli) haven’t helped matters, as well as a change in the left-hand side dynamics with Havertz added into the mix as an LCM (a role in which, interestingly, he is doing a fine job defensively but not contributing so much offensively).
I would expect our improved defensive performance to continue – Rice makes a huge difference to our side and as mentioned before I think the philosophy is control in games. Given that we now have a fully (ish) fit squad minus Timber, it will be interesting to see how Arteta uses it over the coming weeks (and I do worry a little I’m not sure what our best team is!), but I would back the attack to come good as well with Jesus, Martinelli and Saka all on the pitch, Fabio Vieira perhaps playing a greater role, and Havertz adjusting better to his role in the system. Overall, I think the ceiling of the side is higher than their current level and I'm excited to see where we end up!
Chelsea
Attack Strength: 1.60 (+0.03 improvement since GW1)
Defence Strength: 1.27 (+0.02 improvement since GW1)
Overall Strength: 0.32 (+0.05 improvement since GW1)
Model notes:
Out of all the teams in the league, assessing Chelsea has been the most contentious. My view is that people should relax and Chelsea are doing just fine, improving in a realistic fashion. Chelsea were very bad on the field for a long time under multiple managers. The kind of turnaround markets and other people were expecting with just a new manager and summer window was unrealistic.
Stat I enjoyed: Chelsea top Soccerment's gegenpressing intensity (GPI) table by quite a margin with 65% (Tottenham Hotspur are second with 57%)
Definition: GPI represents the fraction of times a team applies counterpressing after losing the ball in attacking areas, i.e. it performs a defensive action in the attacking half or recovers the ball in the defensive half following an unsuccessful opponent pass, within six seconds after losing the ball in the attacking 40% of the pitch.
The Context by Dan @FplStatsdan:
Assessing where Chelsea are at right now is a complicated question. Last summer saw the Clearlake Capital consortium, led by Todd Boehly complete their acquisition of Chelsea Football Club, and what followed can only be described as a whirlwind. Thomas Tuchel was dismissed and Potter was brought in, but after a bright start, he fell afoul of an injury crisis and the gods of xG conspiring against him. Frank Lampard was left with the unenviable task of getting a bloated, unmotivated squad over the finish line, and Chelsea slumped to their worst league finish since 1994.
The summer saw Mauricio Pochettino given the challenge of turning the Boehly project around. This came with another overhaul of the squad, as the ownership sought to rectify the errors made last season. 8 new first-team players were signed, alongside returning loanee Levi Colwill, and an astounding 12 first-team members of the squad were allowed to leave. This is what makes it so difficult to assess what the expectations for Chelsea this season should be. Just compare this lineup I put together based on most league minutes played last season vs. the team that started the last game before the latest International Break against Burnley:
Kepa; Chilwell Thiago Koulibaly Azpilicueta; Kovacic Enzo Loftus-Cheek; Sterling Havertz Mount
Sanchez; Colwill Thiago Disasi Cucurella; Enzo Caceido Gallagher; Sterling Broja Palmer
This is essentially a different team, with only 3 players (Thiago, James and Chilwell) who were mainstays under Tuchel's reign just 2 seasons ago. It's easy to look at the exorbitant spending of the new ownership group and assume this team should be challenging for the title, or at least qualifying for the Champions League. But the reality is that this is a completely new team, mainly filled with players who have a lot of promise but little senior experience. Outside of the evergreen Thiago Silva and a handful of prime-age players like Sterling, Chilwell, Cucurella, Sanchez and Disasi, the entire team is younger than 24, with most in their late teens or early 20s. This age profile is clearly intentional, with the goal of having a squad that can grow and develop together. The flipside of this is that young players are generally a little more inconsistent as they develop their game through senior-level match experience.
Looking at Chelsea's results so far, we see a pretty clear pattern developing both in terms of results and tactically. Chelsea have "won" all but one (West Ham in GW2) of their matches this season on xG, but have struggled to convert their xG into goals, and have conceded often against the run of play or because of individual errors. However, they've also shown signs that things are starting to click, recording 3 wins in a row before the international break, with the introduction of Cole Palmer giving Chelsea another dimension to their attacking play.
Tactically, It's unclear why Pochettino decided to use Colwill as a LB - whether it was to give better protection to the ageing Thiago Silva's legs, or because the injury to star player Christopher Nkunku left Chelsea short of options at LW, forcing Chilwell to be forced further forward. However, it is clear that Pochettino is committed to both the personnel and the system he has chosen, a sort of hybrid 4-3-3/4-2-3-1. This is an encouraging sign for me - too often we saw Graham Potter chopping and changing and seeming unsure of his best team. Pochettino has shown some flexibility where needed in other areas. There were a few games where Enzo Fernandez, a player who makes 10 progressive passes per game (in the 98th percentile according to http://FBRef.com) was playing as a 10 right behind the striker. This meant he was mainly receiving the ball with his back to goal, where he cannot see the picture in front of him. The last 2 matches saw Chelsea play a lot more fluidly, with the impressive Connor Gallagher interchanging with Enzo, allowing Enzo to get back to what he does best, dictating the play from a deeper role.
This is a long-winded way of saying that my feeling around Chelsea right now is one of cautious optimism. Despite concern about only picking up 11 points from one of the easiest schedules in the league so far, the underlying performances and crucially the improvement week-on-week I'm seeing in terms of team dynamics, which are still very much a work in progress, give me a feeling that Chelsea can pick up points in the much more challenging period they have coming up between now and Christmas, where they will face Arsenal, Spurs, Man City, Newcastle, Brighton and Man Utd. What should the expectation be? It's still hard to say, but given the strength (and points on the board) we are seeing from the current top 4, I would say challenging for 5th place alongside a good run in a domestic cup would represent a good season. The more important thing is to see a requisite level of development which suggests Chelsea can aim for bigger things next season.
Thanks for reading and making it until the end! Thank you again to the brilliant contributors - please do reach out to them and let them know you are grateful for their input.
If you enjoyed this or have any feedback/input on what you would like to see in the future - then please do let me know directly on Twitter!
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