Chelsea are doing just fine.
Chelsea are doing just fine.
Understanding Chelsea's season through realistic expectations.
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Coming off the back of a 2-0 home defeat to Brentford there is a palpable (but routine) sense of panic. Watching Pochettino’s first press conference back now gives the impression he knew there was a good chance this would be the timeline we are in:
“If you are in a club like Chelsea, you cannot talk about doing a nice job and playing well. Yes, of course, I can do a good job, play well and in our style and culture but, of course, to win. If you don’t win in a club like Chelsea, for sure, you are going to suffer.” - Pochettino, first Chelsea Press Conference.
I am going to do what Pochettino can’t and talk about doing a nice job and Chelsea playing well:
Chelsea are doing just fine, it is the expectations that were misaligned.
Pre-Season Expectations
Looking back at the final Spreadex table projections before the season started, the expectations for Chelsea were quite interesting. Breaking it down:
Chelsea would be in a comfortable fight for a top-six place.
The top 6 were expected to be far ahead of everyone else (over 7 points clear of the rest of the league).
Only 5 points would separate 4th - 6th place.
Summary: there was an expectation that Chelsea would immediately slingshot straight back to being one of the top teams in the league.
But was that a realistic expectation given where Chelsea were at?
It is vital to have some context as to where Chelsea were in the summer. Clearlake Capital acquired the club, leading to managerial shifts from Tuchel to Potter, who faced challenges with injuries and xG outcomes. Lampard then navigated a difficult path with an underperforming squad, resulting in Chelsea's worst league finish since 1994. In response, Mauricio Pochettino oversaw a substantial overhaul: 8 new first-team players were signed while 12 existing members departed. This erratic period of change is mirrored in the onfield performances:
The above rolling xG / xGA chart is the best way to summarise the main point of this post:
Chelsea have struggled onfield for long periods (since mid 21/22 season) under multiple managers (Tuchel, Potter, and Lampard).
Chelsea finished the 22/23 season in 12th place, and this was pretty much deserved (~10th on expected points).
It is extremely rare for a manager, with only a summer of training + friendlies, to turn a team around in this context to the extent that people/markets expected.
So what were realistic expectations?
Looking at my team model data from the same time as the pre-GW1 Spreadex market predictions we saw earlier, Chelsea were predicted to be in a fight for a top-eight place. My team strength model tracks on-field performance very closely and you can find more information about it in the FAQ here.
Biases towards my model aside, going from 12th to 8th in the context of change that Chelsea have experienced seems a more realistic improvement trajectory. Moreover, this season in particular there were good reasons to believe those teams around Chelsea would improve (most notably Aston Villa who were comfortably below Chelsea in my model but are quickly proving that I was too low on them).
Despite downplaying expectations so far, Chelsea are one of the most improved teams in the league.
Chelsea’s improvement.
Looking at the above snapshot from my model post-GW9 games, there are positives for Chelsea:
Chelsea are one of only 3 teams to improve in both Attack and Defence this season (Newcastle and Nottingham Forest the other two). This is a reliable indicator that good structural things are happening in the team and will translate into better performances and results.
Chelsea have the most relative defensive improvement. We can see this evidenced by other onfield statistics, for example, Chelsea top Soccerment's gegenpressing intensity (GPI) table by quite a margin with 65% (Tottenham Hotspur are second with 58%)
Definition: GPI represents the fraction of times a team applies counterpressing after losing the ball in attacking areas, i.e. it performs a defensive action in the attacking half or recovers the ball in the defensive half following an unsuccessful opponent pass, within six seconds after losing the ball in the attacking 40% of the pitch.
In terms of underlyings, Chelsea are now competing to be the 5th best team in the league with Brighton and Tottenham.
‘Underlying’ is the key phrase here that many Chelsea fans are likely sick of. All teams want their performances to translate into results, but if it was that easy then it would not be football.
The reality is that Chelsea’s underlying statistics have been phenomenal:
Using xG data from FBref, the above chart shows that the recent loss to Brentford is the only game that Chelsea have not won on xG (and it would be fair to caveat that result due to the nature of Brentford’s last-minute second goal against an open goal). Had all of these results gone the way that would be expected, Chelsea would have ~7 more points than they currently do which would put them in 3rd/4th place.
Converting this accumulated xG into goals has been the issue:
Chelsea are the biggest xG underperformers in the league, scoring ~6 fewer goals than expected. Whilst it is true that the best teams always outperform their xG, I am more inclined to believe Chelsea have been unlucky. I disagree with those who are already writing off Nicolas Jackson - he has been excellent at generating shots and at just 22 years of age I don’t think there is anywhere near enough evidence to believe he is a poor finisher. Arguments he has lacked composure may have some weight, but he more than makes up for it in the problems he causes for defenders and shot volume.
Tactically, I think there is also cause for optimism. In addition to the clear uptick in pressing (evidenced by topping the Soccerment GPI index), Pochettino has used the players available to him in intelligent ways. The introduction of Cole Palmer has given cause for optimism, giving Chelsea another dimension to their attacking play. This was shown in the game against Arsenal where Gallagher and Palmer were utilised in really interesting forward positions to help deal with Arsenal’s rotations. Solutions like this are necessary given Chelsea’s injury list this season affecting both existing key players and new signings designed to make an immediate impact:
Chelsea ‘serious’ injuries this season: James, Nkunku, Chilwell, Fofana, Lavia, Broja, Chalobah, Chukwuemeka, Badiashile, Palmer, Diassi.
Going further, some of the solutions Pochettino has tried have also been thwarted by unfortunate events, for example using Chukwuemeka early on in the season was working very well and then he got injured, same for Chilwell and James, and then Gusto got a 3-match ban, ending up with Cucurella as a RB.
The Nkunku injury was a really big one. In preseason it looked like Chelsea were building the team around him and I think his return will help solve a lot of the issue we are seeing in the final third against teams implementing a low block.
Even outside of injuries, it is important to recognise that Pochettino has done a great job bringing cohesion to a new team. Just compare the lineup that played the most league minutes last season vs. the team that started the last game against Brentford:
Kepa; Chilwell Thiago Koulibaly Azpilicueta; Kovacic Enzo Loftus-Cheek; Sterling Havertz Mount
Sánchez; Colwill, Disasi, Cucurella, Thiago Silva; Palmer, Gallagher, Caicedo, Sterling, Madueke, Jackson
This is essentially a different team, with only Thiago as the real mainstay under Tuchel's reign just 2 seasons ago. It's easy to look at the exorbitant spending of the new ownership group and assume this team should be challenging for the title, or at least qualifying for the Champions League. But the reality is that this is a completely new team, mainly filled with players who have a lot of promise but little senior experience.
What are realistic expectations now?
Taking into account how the season has played out so far, I have simulated the rest of the season using my latest team ratings. The outcome is that Chelsea are currently looking at an ~8th-place finish. Given how unlucky Chelsea have been with results so far, that seems like a reasonable expectation for the rest of the season.
Overall I think it is a relatively exciting time to be a Chelsea fan and there is cause for optimism. This team is in a significantly better place than it has been for a long time with the onfield performances so far this season showing a lot of promise. Being a clear top-4 contender is probably a season or two away given the transfer strategy the club has chosen, but there is enough evidence to suggest the club should stick to Project Pochettino.
Having laid it all out, perhaps they are doing more than just fine…
I think Chelsea are doing great.
Thanks to Jack and Dan for reading the draft version of this.