Data Droplets - MD11
Data Droplets - MD11
Analytical thoughts on MD11 and beyond.
Hi 👋
Data Droplets is a periodic post of analytical ideas to help you understand what is happening in the Premier League.
In this post:
GW 11 - 16 Player Goal and Assist Projections and Members Area
Just how bad have Man United been?
Everton and Calvert-Lewin Stonks
GW 11 - 16 Team-level Projected Goals and Clean Sheets
Matchday 11 Fixture Predictions (goals, CS%, win%)
Expected Goal Difference by Game State (@TonyElHabr)
1. Player Goal and Assist Projections and Members Area
Since I started posting team-level projections I get at least 5 new people every week asking if I can share player-level projections. I have generally resisted this due to the time commitment involved (especially on the expected minutes side) but I have now started to do this in some capacity.
I am currently projecting the top 20 players for Goals and Assists over the next 6 gameweeks. These projections are based on my team strength model, player level model, and the foundations of the expected minutes model I built for predicting Man City minutes.
These will be hosted in the member’s area here. To justify the time input, I have paywalled the full list of projections. I have chosen the cheapest option that Substack allows (the price of 1 cup of coffee per month) and I will continue to post the top ~5/10 few for free. In addition to this, I have included other benefits which you can read about here.
Please do not sign up unless you can afford it. If you cannot afford it but want access to these projections then message me and I will provide them to you for free.
2. Just how bad have Man United been?
In case you missed it, I recently wrote a longer read about how I think Chelsea are in a pretty good spot right now:
For my next longer piece I am considering exploring Manchester United - have they really been that bad?
Yeah, they have. If you would be interested in reading that, let me know!
3. Everton and Calvert-Lewin Stonks
Everton’s attack continues to improve and the return of Calvert-Lewin shows up impressive projections. Everton have the 6th hardest attacking fixtures over the next 6 gameweeks but my model still has DCL as the 11th highest for goals scored over this period (1.92 goals).
4. GW 11 - 16 Team-level Projected Goals and Clean Sheets
5. Matchday 11 Fixture Predictions (goals, CS%, win%)
6. Expected Goal Difference by Game State (@TonyElHabr)
Really enjoyed this visualisation from Tony:
Thank you for reading! Always open to feedback so feel free to reply to this email if there is anything else you would like to see.
Much love ✌️