Data Droplets - MD12

Analytics on MD12 and beyond.

Hi 👋

Data Droplets is a periodic post of analytics to help you understand what is happening in the Premier League.

In this post:

1. GW 12 - 17 Player Goal and Assist Projections

2. How do Premier League teams play their goal kicks?

3. GW 12 - 17 Team-level Projected Goals and Clean Sheets

4. Man United’s Numbers are xG-remely bad

5. Matchday 12 Fixture Predictions (goals, CS%, win%)

6. Matchday 12 Player Predictions (goals + assists)

7. Members: Top 20 list of Goal and Assist projections

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1. GW 12 - 17 Player Goal and Assist Projections

I've recently begun sharing player-level projections after receiving frequent requests. Despite initial reluctance due to time constraints, I'm now projecting players for Goals and Assists. Leveraging my team strength model, player-level model, and an expected minutes model, these projections are hosted in the member’s area here, with the full longer list paywalled at a monthly fee (the cost of a cup of coffee). In addition to this, I have included other benefits which you can read about here.

It's important only to sign up if you can afford it, if financial constraints are an issue and you still want access to specific projections, feel free to reach out, and I'll provide what you need at no cost.

The latest news on Maddison has meant that he has dropped out of the predictions. Maddison was previously in the top 5 for projected assists so this will be a concern for Tottenham creativity - they now have no representation on the top-20 version of this chart.

2. How do Premier League teams play their goal kicks?

A post-GW11 update on goal kicks and Brighton have still played 100% of goal kicks short.

De Zerbi: "I don't like betting - I would rather train my team to play out from the back when it is possible because that is not betting, that is 'working".

Is this a sign that Brighton are too predictable now? Nice 20-minute video from Tifo if you are interested in exploring this topic further:

3. GW 12 - 17 Team-level Projected Goals and Clean Sheets

4. Man United’s Numbers are xG-remely Bad

Purple range = United won game on xG | Red range = United lost game on xG

5. Matchday 12 Fixture Predictions (goals, CS%, win%)

6. Matchday 12 Player Predictions (goals and assists)

Been experimenting with visualisations for the member area and put together a condensed viz of predictions for the next gameweek:

Paid Members Content: