Fast Fantasy Draft
How I would start the season.
I recently released my free Fast Fantasy Model. This is my one preseason fantasy post, designed to share my initial thoughts and picks based on the model's numbers.
This is not a team reveal (I haven’t signed up for FPL and likely won’t play this season), but rather a look at how I’d approach the season. A few notes:
For each position, I'll give a ‘1st choice’ (the top player based on the numbers) and a ‘preference choice’ (a nearly equal alternative).
I will give some xPoints numbers from under the hood at the time of writing but you should always check back in with the live Fast Fantasy table.
The choices are ‘strategy neutral’ (e.g. there is no locked in WC).
There’s little to separate Salah / Haaland paths overall, so this is more of a preference choice. I’ll write this assuming Salah is selected and offer example drafts for both options at the end.
You will note that generally the selections lean towards good ‘decision-hygiene’ and ‘safety’. The way I make decisions with my models generally does lean towards multiple options, all of which you could choose with a ‘clean conscience’. As a result, you won’t see riskier picks like Minteh or Bobb - feel free to include them based on your own judgment.
Goalkeeper
1st Choices: Flekken / Onana
Preference Choices: Henderson / Vicario
Goalkeeper is a funny position that leans on preference decisions more than most. The predicted numbers rarely show one standout option - most are closely grouped. They are all close together in reality. It is also heavily a preference decision because of budget allocation (e.g. given they are all so close together there is a preference to go as cheap as possible on GKs and put the money elsewhere).
My numbers indicate that Flekken / Henderson are the best cheaper options (both around 18 xPoints over the first 6). Onana / Vicario also show value at higher prices (both around 19 xPoints over the first 6 - value also depending on your fantasy game pricing).
Keeping it simple:
Decide if you want a cheaper or pricier GK.
Decide if you want more than one playing GK.
Pick your preference - don’t procrastinate over this position.
Defenders
1st Choices: Alexander-Arnold, Gabriel, Porro, Konsa, Dunk
Preference Choices: Gvardiol, VVD, Quansah, Hall
Alexander-Arnold’s leads all defenders (26 xPoints over the first 6) but this obviously comes at a price. My model generally suggests 2-3 expensive defenders are optimal, with 4.5m defenders rotating in as needed.
With 4.5 choices, it is a good example of making sure you supplement the models with appropriate contextual information. Generally, you want cheap defenders to be available across a long horizon because their function is to be occasional rotation and back-up if necessary. This means that although players such as Guehi / Quansah / Hall will come up extremely high, you need to make sure you are doing a sense check as to their long-term availability and likely expected minutes. Security of Konsa / Dunk / Van Hecke / Robinson all quite valuable here imo.
Gabriel comes up extremely well as always (23 xPoints over the first 6), but again, another one to supplement with external factors (e.g. how does Calafiori affect him). Van Dijk is an underrated preference option here (identical xPoints over first 6) along with Gvardiol (21 xPoints).
Porro consistently appears in my solutions as the top defender below the premium tier.
Midfielders
1st Choice: Salah, Saka, Fernandes, Gordon, Nkunku
Preference Choice: Eze, Odegaard, Foden
Saka appears in all my different solutions (94 Importance and 38 xPoints across the first 6). I did a quick 3 minutes on him on a recent podcast, but in short I think he is really making the leap this year from a fantasy perspective and on my numbers I don’t really see much different between him and Salah (99 Importance and 39 xPoints across the first 6).
Foden (74 Importance) probably the best MID example of the importance of minutes - he is expected to come into the season with reduced minutes but once normalised he is just as good if not better than the other options around him (e.g. Son (76 Importance) + Fernandes (69 Importance)). Eze is a total preference pick according to your position on whether you think his availability will be subject to a transfer - if he plays as normal then he is probably the best value midfielder with Nkunku (55 Importance).
On Palmer (77 Importance), my numbers are cold (lol) on him. He is good (35 xPoints across the first 6), but generally my view is that last year’s penalties inflated his price slightly above his actual worth.
Forwards
1st Choice: Isak, Joao Pedro
Preference Choice: Haaland (see notes below), Solanke, Muniz, A. Armstrong
I don’t think it is surprising that Isak (68 Importance - second best striker behind Haaland) comes up in almost every solution I have (31 xPoints across the first 6). The lines without Isak usually revolve around having a specific belief on Solanke (51 Importance) at Tottenham (my updated numbers show 27 xPoints across the first 6) and also a strong belief that J. Pedro’s minutes will be consistently high.
If you don’t believe Pedro’s (34 Importance) minutes will be consistently high then this slot opens up massively for preference. Adam Armstrong (30 Importance) is fine but a nice one to choose on preference with high confidence he will get a lot of time on the pitch. Muniz (35 Importance) a good selection and DCL (34 Importance) continues to be underrated.
Havertz (54 Importance) a very interesting one if you have a strong belief in him getting a good chunk of CF minutes.
So to some all of this up, I would start the season with an approximation of one of the two options:
Example 1st Choice draft:
Example Haaland Preference draft:
Notes: as highlighted earlier, the decision as to whether go for a Salah or Haaland draft is entirely a preference decision imo - they are both so close (both the above drafts have an identical overall Importance Score of 690 at the time of writing).
The above draft is an approximation on what my numbers spit out if I ‘force’ Haaland. You see that the draft roughly stays the same but forces a few different considerations:
Having a belief in good 4.5 defenders as they will play more.
You have to forego Trent or Gabriel - example above chooses Gabriel but the alternative is equal, just involves finding the £1m, like by one 4m defender and Eze over Gordon or 4.5m mid over Rogers.
High reliance on J. Pedro minutes.
All things considered, I would go probably go with a Haaland draft.
If you want to have a look at the model and compare the different Importance Ratings of players then check out its dedicated page here:
