GW38 Match Data
Final gameweek of the season!
Contents:
Team Model Accuracy
Next season plans
Screenshots of Match Predictions and Top 10 Player Goal Involvement
Team Model Accuracy
Some back-of-the-envelope analysis before final gameweek:
The team predictions have managed a season mean average error (MAE) of 0.92 to Goals and 0.59 to xG.
On MAE, this is slightly better than the Spreadex market predictions as frozen at FPL deadline.
My model was closer to actual Goals 362 times compared to Spreadex 357.
My model was closer to actual xG 366 times compared to Spreadex 353.
There were 21 total draws (same predictions as market).
There is some interesting analysis to be done. I have an experimental ‘add-on’ to my model that adjusts for specific games to pick up on big ‘time-sensitive contextual’ events (e.g. injuries, rotation, etc.). I would like to backtest that if I get the time. The reality is I won’t get the time, but I hope all of this encourages people that they should still see building their own models as something worth doing.
Next season plans
I don’t expect to be playing fantasy again next season. However, I would be open to keeping elevenify predictions going, as the single best page for free Premier League predictions.
I’m exploring the best path forward to do this sustainably (e.g. less time commitment). Please reach out if you know anyone who wants to help with this.
Data Screenshots
As always, adjust for your own beliefs, overlaying whatever views you have about any final day of the season intangibles etc.
Have a good summer 💜