GW3 Prediction Notes
Thoughts from the wildcard.
Hi all 👋
Quick roundup of some data/predictions and some fantasy notes at the end (I am on wildcard!).
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Team Ratings changes after two weeks:
Here is how the model is adjusting its beliefs after 2 weeks:
A lot of comments about the Newcastle down-adjustment perhaps being unfair given the red card: I spoke about this specifically in the recent member’s podcast (link) but the reality is they have been underperforming even if we allow for that.
Match Prediction Tracking:
I have been tracking my predictions versus markets and actual goals and xG. 2 weeks is meaningless but here are some observations:
1. Games are lower scoring than expected (I think this nuance is the main reason I have been slightly more accurate than the markets so far)… again, all noise so far but if you think there is something in this then consider how that might affect predictions (e.g. more clean sheets?); and
2. Markets seem to believe in a larger disparity of league quality than I do. Compared to other proprietary models I was aware of my model having a large gap between the top 3 and 4th but markets seem to believe the gap extends throughout the whole table (e.g. the top 3 are stronger and bottom 3 are weaker than I believe).
GW3 Match Predictions:
If you are interested in looking at goals, clean sheets, and Win % for MD3-7 then you can view them in live-tables here.
Player Prediction Data and Fantasy WC Notes:
Here is a look at the summary view of goal involvement for the next 6 weeks:
You can view all 100 players in the members area here. This translates into an updated fast fantasy model looking like this:
Wildcard
I am currently on wildcard and here are my current thoughts:
Strategy: From a general perspective, I have found that the actual value of WC1 is extremely low mainly due to the year-on-year lowering of player prices. In other words, the ability to change your whole team at once is not very interesting when you can already have whoever you want.
Combining this with the ability to roll transfers through a wildcard leads me to the feel that the best meta use of WC1 is to set up a robust GW1 team and use Wildcard within the first 4 gameweeks. This will generally put you in a position where you have a fresh team with 3/4 FTs around gameweek 5. I imagine it is hard to lose control of your strategy from there.
Drafting: Whilst it is viable to find a nice plan including Haaland, I think the real power in the wildcard right now is to go without and use those funds to get a strong midfield and defence:
Example draft:
Flekken, Verbruggen
Gabriel, Dunk, Konsa, Colwill, 4.0.
Salah, Saka, Palmer, Mbeumo, Eze.
Evanilson, J. Pedro, Isak.
From there you can get quite creative with the GKs and FWDs based on your preference. There is a massive selection in both areas:
GK options: here is my rough order of preference: 1) Flekken + Verbruggen; 2) Raya/Ederson + 4.0 or backup 4.4; 3) 4.5 + 4.0.
FWD options (in no order): J. Pedro, Vardy, Calvert-Lewin, Wissa, Evanilson, A. Armstrong, Muniz, Delap, Wood, Strand-Larsen… That is a long list! If you go for the big 5 midfield you are limited to these cheap options unless you drop one for Rogers, or sacrifice defence as in the example above, you can start squeezing Isak / Watkins who are still both great options for the forthcoming horizon.
I think Evanilson is interesting. Conversion from Portugal is always difficult but I am expecting him to do quite well. On Bournemouth's current team strength I have his season predictions at ~11 goals and ~4 assists.
Team Value: I have also had some benefits in team value. I have avoided 0.4m in actual drops and caught the price rises of Salah, Palmer, Raya, and potentially farmed 0.1m depending on final rises. I have also manoeuvred to get Eze at 6.9m.
I am not sure where I will end up come the deadline - but my guess is with the stacked midfield, cheap FWDs, and a big defence.
Have a great week ✌️