PL 24/25 - Player Radars #2
Finishing edition.
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Housekeeping: I am doing more audio content via podcast this season! I will give more information later but it will stick to data-driven Premier League predictions and analytics. Here is your chance to tell me what specifically you want to hear:
This is part 2 of the Radar post where I pick one player from each team and provide their stats radar and some comments. This now completes one player for all 20 teams, if you missed it you can read part one here. This specific post has a finishing skill theme, courtesy of the below chart from @Schadenfreudist:
This chart plots finishing skill against npxG per 90. The simplest way to interpret it is to look at where a player is in relation to the four corner labels.
Liverpool
Would it be a finishing skill discussion without Darwin Nunez? The stereotype is that Nunez is an awful finisher. Is that true? Not exactly. The data suggests that Nunez is indeed a below-average finisher - but nowhere near as bad as the discourse would have you believe.
Darwin is an elite chance-getter. The sheer volume of shots he takes mostly fuels this idea that he is a terrible finisher (if you take more shots than everyone else you will also miss more shots than everyone else).
If there is any issue, it might be his shot selection choice. He averaged 0.18 npxG per shot in Portugal and is now down at ~0.14 in the Premier League (which is still above average).
Man City
We are now getting multiple seasons of evidence that suggests Foden is an exceptional finisher. I don’t think we have ever really seen him have a below-average finishing season in the Premier League and of the ten players we are looking at in this post, his finishing-skill rating is second only to Son. I am hoping to see another season of big minutes for Foden.
Man Utd
@SnakeFpl on Twitter watched a lot of Zirkzee last year at Bologna and said that he is more of a creative type forward than a goalscoring forward, someone who likes to drop deep, and his quality of link-up play and creative intelligence should make everyone around him better.
I have two thoughts on this signing: (1) I don’t think Man United need another forward who doesn’t shoot much (it seems United are banking on Hojlund upping his shot numbers)… that seems to be the case:
Ten Hag: “Joshua Zirkzee has skills that we didn't have yet in this team. Such as his hold up play, creativity, dribbling. We didn't have this skillset yet in the striker position. Joshua Zirkzee & Rasmus Hojlund can play together. They compliment each other.”
A small counter-argument is that even though he does not shoot much, he does seem to be an above-average finisher (despite the small sample size because he doesn’t shoot much!).
(2) I agree that he will make those around him better, but conversely, he seems like the kind of player who is only worth it if he is already surrounded by a minimum-viable level of quality (which I am not sure he is at United).
Newcastle
Newcastle United took a step forward in their attack last year and one of the big parts of that was Alexander Isak having a phenomenal production season. There is a reason most markets have him as the third favourite for top goalscorer this year: Isak put up 0.62 npxG p90 (3rd best in the league) and also provided a steady 0.15 xA p90. There is nothing special from a finishing perspective, Isak is probably an average finisher. What I like watching about Isak is the way he adds value to attacks in an ‘all upside’ way: he gets shots off and creates chances for others that others would not be able to.
Nott'm Forest
Long-time readers may feel a sense of deja vu - I am talking about Awoniyi (what year is it?!). Things have not gone great since I hailed him as the PL’s new goal messiah in 2022 when he moved to Nottingham Forest. Injuries have been bad as he managed just 1400 and 1000 minutes in his 2 seasons. Despite the small minutes sample, he has averaged 0.41 npxG per 90 across his two seasons. He has done that consistently in a Nottingham Forest side that has been of varying quality, which comes back to the reason I was so high on him from watching him at Union Berlin: there are not many strikers I see that can create xG out of thin air like he can. He is elite at manoeuvring himself into a position to have high-quality shots. I am hoping we finally get to see him have a full healthy season.
Southampton
Believe it or not, Adam Armstrong has played 2700 minutes of Premier League football for Southampton, split between 21/22 and 22/23. He scored 4 goals across those minutes, and rightfully so, just a meagre total of 6.6 xG generated. The precedent for him is not good.
How, then, has he turned into this production machine with 21 goals and 13 assists from 22 xG and 8 xA? Unexpectedly, he has done this by being *less* of a striker. Russell Martin pretty much deployed him everywhere:
This makes Armstrong the focal point of the general curiosity everyone has with Southampton: can they just carry on like this in the PL?
Spurs
I was a bit sceptical when Spurs gave him such a big contract renewal in 2021. Although Son has long been considered one of Europe’s best finishers, a big part of his game was using physical attributes to create such opportunities for himself. In the subsequent season, 22/23, he had the first average finishing season of his career. However, he then bounced back with 4.5 goals over his npxG in 23/24. In addition, he increased other metrics like his take-ons and progressive carries, all whilst receiving the most progressive passes he has in 5 years. So, physicality is probably not an issue (yet), but I want to see how this continues if Tottenham get the striker they reportedly want (e.g. Solanke/Toney).
West Ham
Mildly hot take? The Füllkrug deal is overall quite a bad bit of business. ~29m Euro fee + multi-year contract for a 31-year-old is the obvious part, but I'm also not convinced his attacking output (particularly goals) will transfer well to the PL. I do think his link-up play will benefit those around him and I can perhaps get on board with some of the team-specific production arguments (e.g. set-pieces)… but overall Fullkrug produces very average output and is an average finisher. Markets are projecting 11-12.5 goals for him this season in the PL. I would probably be happy taking that under on that as it probably requires a combination of 3000+ minutes with very little production level drop and/or loadsa penalties.
Wolves
I have to admit that I was shocked when I saw these numbers. I knew he was a bit underwhelming in front of the goal (data suggests he is not a particularly good chance-getter or finisher) but I did not realise quite how much of *everything else* he does. I am going to be paying more attention to him this season.
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