25/26 #02: Table
A look at the projected league table.
All Premier League data is on one single page here.
With just 3 days to go until the Premier League kicks off, here’s the best guess we have right now of how the season might unfold.
Below is a visual comparison of my model’s predicted table versus Spreadex’s market predictions, as of August 12, 2025. My model will get a final update Friday, but no major changes are expected.
It’s worth reminding ourselves why market data is important when trying to predict the Premier League (with the usual caveat that all reference to market data on this website is solely for its utility in understanding the premier league, not for betting).
Spreadex markets pool the knowledge of many professional and informed participants and operate with minimal margin or hedging. This means their predicted points totals are carefully calibrated to be as accurate as possible. Plus, markets quickly absorb new information, making their predictions dynamic and up-to-date. All this adds up to a high predictive signal. For more on this, I recommend the video from Solio Analytics here.
Let’s take a quickfire look at some differences that interested me:
Man City, Man United, Tottenham: these teams are prime examples of what I call the ‘trust me, bro’ effect often seen in market-based predictions over a summer. My model accounts for off-season changes like transfers, but I believe their impact on team ratings is much smaller than what the markets currently reflect. I care much more about seeing good on-field evidence to update my prior beliefs. There is very little on-field evidence to support the idea that (1) Manchester City can instantly return to challenging Liverpool and Arsenal so closely, or (2) that Manchester United and Tottenham can jump dramatically from their deserved 15th and 17th place finishes last season to 6th and 8th respectively.
Bournemouth and Crystal Palace: I was surprised to see the markets rank these teams this low. This represents the opposite side of the above effect. We have a full season of solid on-field evidence supporting Bournemouth’s and Palace’s strength. I don’t see enough off-field factors to justify such a steep hit to their inferred quality. Equally, I appreciate I may be too high on them.
One limitation is that Spreadex doesn’t provide team season total goals, so there’s no direct insight into attack versus defense strength or other specific reasons behind team performance projections. This lack of granularity makes it difficult to fully understand why shifts in team rankings occur. For example, a lower expected finish compared to last season might mean: (1) the team is perceived as weaker; or (2) it might simply reflect a stronger overall league which translates into a lower finish.
Brentford: lol don’t even get me started
The outlooks for Man City, Man United, Tottenham, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Brentford are the perfect cases of making sure you appropriately adjust for your own beliefs and philosophy.
Chelsea: Spreadex seems more optimistic about Chelsea closing the gap on the top three, while my model suggests any improvement will be more incremental than a big leap. This is amusing, as I was significantly more bullish on Chelsea than Spreadex during the Club World Cup! This also highlights an interesting observation: my model sees the league as more tightly bunched than Spreadex’s projections imply.
Here are some other predicted league table resources you may be interested in:
Simon’s Premier League model here.
- Scott Willis frequently simulates the league with his model.
The Transfer Flow predicted table and previews.
Opta league table projections.
At this moment, these insights and resources offer the clearest and most reliable prediction of the Premier League season ahead.
If you missed it, I posted newsletter #01 of this season looking at somee player snapshot graphics (link here).
Much love ✌️💜