25/26 #03: Starter Pack
Everything we need to start the season.
The Premier League is back!
This post shares screenshots from my latest model data, which I use to anticipate what might happen in the new season. Adjust for your own beliefs and use it if it’s helpful to you!
I don’t spam this data out via email every week because everything below is already in live-updating tables on a single page here. You can view at any time. For the best experience, use a browser (not the Substack app).
Team Ratings and Simulated Table
Here are my final team ratings for 2025/26.
A common reaction is disbelief about teams like United and Spurs, with many expecting a quick, dramatic turnaround. My model does incorporate off-season changes (including transfers), but their effect on ratings is smaller than market data. I put far more weight on on-field evidence before adjusting priors.
You may also be interested in reading my post here, which explores some of the differences with the market data.
Gameweek 1 Match Predictions
6 Gameweek Horizon for Goals/Assists/Clean Sheets
Player Predictions (Goals / Assists / Clean Sheets)
Note: (assuming each player starts, so adjust for your own beliefs, e.g., if you think Isak won’t start, you’d set him to 0 goals early on).
Fast Fantasy
Fast Fantasy puts fantasy on “easy mode” for those short on time.
It’s not a predicted-points model. It’s a tool for idea generation. Pick likely starters, roll often, and adjust for your beliefs and chip strategy. Beyond a certain point, extra effort yields diminishing returns. Much of the heavy lifting happens in the sorting and filtering, which this model does for you.
I have made the decision to remove defensive contributions from these calculations because many people use them for non-FPL fantasy games. In any event, Defenders are less important than other positions, so rely on personal preference when selecting them.
If you are interested in being a better Fantasy manager, I highly recommend you read this Fantasy Frameworks article. For good fantasy results, this stuff is far more important than any of the data above.
Much love ✌️💜